Sunday, May 27, 2007


Counting complete

Well the counting is finally complete and the seats to the 30th Dáil have now been filled.

Talk will now turn to who will join Fianna Fáil in government but I thought I'd take the time to compare this year's election's results with my predictions on how things would turn out. I had a pretty mixed bag as it happens. Take a look:

My predictions:

Fianna Fáil - 68 seats

Fine Gael - 50 seats

Labour - 20 seats

Greens - 9 seats

Sinn Féin - 8 seats

Progressive Democrats - 3 seats

Ind/Others - 8 seats

Actual results:

Fianna Fáil - 78 seats

Fine Gael - 51 seats

Labour - 20 seats

Greens - 6 seats

Sinn Féin - 4 seats

Progressive Democrats - 2 seats

Independents - 5 seats

As you can see I badly miscalculated the level of support for Fianna Fáil which I was sure would slip. I expected the Greens would do better what with the increased interest in global warming and climate change but that didn't transpire. As for Sinn Féin, while I never believed they would make the huge gains some predicted, I nonetheless expected them to make gains. The fact they actually lost a seat surprises me greatly. On the other hand I was remarkably accurate when it came to Fine Gael and Labour with my prediction spot on for the latter and one away with regard to the former. I also correctly forecast the meltdown of the PDs though I didn't see McDowell losing his seat too. Several Independents were squeezed out by the strength of the big two which is also a bit of a shock.

Looking at the numbers and from listening to Ahern today talking on Sky News, a deal with the PDs and some independents could well be his preferred route now. For the PDs to remain in government having lost six of their eight seats truly would make a mockery of democracy and would sicken me to my very core. Then again, perhaps it would be a fitting arrangement. After all it would be a shame to leave another party with the job of cleaning up the PDs' mess.


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